Service Plays Sunday 11/29/09

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Sirduke Sports

<TABLE border=1 cellSpacing=0 bgColor=#ffffff><CAPTION>16-6-1 LAST 25 NFL Plays 75% WINNERS</CAPTION><THEAD><TR><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Date</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Kick Off</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Club Rating</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Rotation</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Selection</TH><TH bgColor=#c0c0c0 borderColor=#000000>Rating</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>11/29/2009</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5 align=right>8:35:00 PM</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>Elite Club</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>229</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>New England Patriots+3</TD><TD borderColor=#d0d7e5>10* Monday Night GOY</TD></TR></TBODY><TFOOT></TFOOT></TABLE>Follow Sirduke Sports on Twitter http://twitter.com/sirdukesports
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5 Unit Play. #120 Take Tennessee -2 over Arizona (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Week. The Titans have been a new team since Vince Young started calling plays under center and will enter this game having won four straight. The Cardinals have all but locked up the NFC West and will be making their second straight long road trip, having played at St. Louis last week. Arizona is 5-0 on the road this season but that is fools gold and most of that came against weak teams. They will face Minnesota next week and that game means much more to them than this one. The Titans continue to roll and we will collect big in the process as well. Tennessee 27, Arizona 20.

4 Unit Play. #104 Take Over 46 in Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Totals Play. We have used the over in the Falcons the last two weeks and collected and we fully expect to complete the trifecta on Sunday with another high-scoring game. The Falcons are still banged up at the running back position and thus will likely have to move the ball through the air. That sets up a perfect play with the over with numerous clock stoppages. The Falcons have been terrible on defense allowing 62 points in their last two games. Play the over and watch your money grow. ATL 34, Tampa Bay 17.

4 Unit Play. #128 Take New Orleans -3 over New England (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Patriots are getting too much respect and this writer is certainly not buying into them just yet. They face an undefeated Saints squad in the Big Easy, and are just a field goal dog? That is not right, since New Orleans is 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. DC Williams has turned around the Saints defense 180 degrees and this unit can now hold their own. 1st and Ten. Throw in QB Brees and a high powered offense and you will hear from this team for quite some time. This line is way too low and we will collect big in the process as well. New Orleans 37, New England 30.
 
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dover picks


colts 3 units

falcons 2 units

dolphins 1 unit




sea/stl under 43 3 units

wash/philly under 41 1 unit

colt/hou under 49 1 unit
 

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Malinsky NFL Sunday

4* #213 MIAMI/BUFFALO Under

So often the best situations at this stage of the season are those that the oddsmakers and markets simply miss because there is seemingly no reason for them to take a second look. Buffalo’s defensive performance at Jacksonville last week was just such a setting, and we can get ahead of the curve at the value being offered this week.Perry Fewell stepped up to the challenge when forced into the interim coaching position last week; despite the fact that he has almost no chance to be a candidate for the full-time spot he knows a lot of eyes are following in terms of jobs opening up at other places (and perhaps to even stay on as DC here). And while Fewell’s defense has been a disaster this year, so much of that was because of injuries, including such key cogs as Paul Posluszny, Aaron Schobel, Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee. Now the missing pieces are coming back, and what he is doing with them not only mattered at Jacksonville, but can make a big difference this week. With Whitner back to health they spent a lot of the game in sets using three safeties, and what had been one of the weakest rush defenses in the N.F.L. held Maurice Jones-Drew to 66 yards on 25 carries. He did not have a run longer than 10 yards, and the 2.6 per carry was about half of the 5.1 per attempt he was averaging coming in.The Bills played hard on defense for Fewell, and played well, with the safeties leading the way. And the positive attitude is carrying forward. This, from George Wilson - <i>"It does wonders for us because we can disguise our man and zone pressures whenever we're blitzing. Our safeties are so interchangeable that we can matchup with just about any skill guy that's out there and not feel like we're in a mismatch. That gives our coordinator great confidence to be able to dial up those pressures or man coverages and try to confuse the opposing offenses."</i> And from Jairus Byrd - <i>"I'm excited about how they are using us. We have guys who have shown the ability to make plays, so the coaches are looking for ways to get us on the field together. We had some success with it in Jacksonville, so we look forward to seeing how we can expand that."</i>Expect to see a lot of those sets this week, and we believe it will be the ideal counter to those Dolphin Wildcat schemes. With Chad Henne lacking experience, and with the Miami WR’s as mediocre of a group as there is, there just are not a lot of other options for Tony Sparano. But Sparano can be content go just plug away and play for field position anyway, largely because his own defense can keep the Bills under control. A Buffalo OL that was going to be a work in progress with so many new faces this season has instead become a train wreck. When the game ended last week there were only five healthy players left in that unit, and there is absolutely no chemistry. They will be starting their seventh different combination this week, with Geoff Hangartner the only player to appear in all 10 games. Three players have started at LT and four at RT, none of them very good, and that means huge headaches on the outside against Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. The Dolphins already have 26 sacks, and can make life even more miserable for Ryan Fitzpatrick than it already is most games.

4* #206 HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colt SU run is reaching some historic levels at the current 19-0. But there is a different kind of history that they just made that tells us much more about where they really are – they just became the first team in N.F.L. history to win four consecutive games by a combined total of 10 points. Six of their 10 wins have come by four points or less, and if the season ended today only two of those 10 opponents would be in the playoffs. This line is based on that dramatic SU win streak, but the true realities tells us that we have a pick’em game here, and we get a chance to take points with a home team that can exploit the biggest Indy weaknesses.Is calling this pick’em a stretch? Hardly. The Colts are +32 first downs and +727 yards this season. The Texans are +18 and +380 in the same categories. Adjust for the home field, and the fact that Houston has played the slightly tougher schedule, and the counts find you in the pick’em range. It is partly the brilliance of Peyton Manning that has had the Colts pull out so many close games, but also some extreme fortune as well. If Kris Brown makes that late FG three weeks ago, these two would have gone to O.T. at Lucas Oil Stadium. If Kevin Faulk does not have a slight bobble two weeks ago the Patriots win on that same field. Last week all John Flacco had to do was make a better read on an awful late-game interception, and the Ravens are in a prime position to win as well.The Colts have not run the ball well, netting just 3.8 per carry and producing 226 fewer yards than their opponents. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 141 of the 272 pass receptions, and because the other options are so limited we believe the second time around in division play will be a much tougher challenge for Manning and the passing attack, as the defenses get a chance to make significant adjustments. And while the defense still rates #1 in the league for fewest points allowed, the absence of Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson and Tyjuan Hagler for the remainder of the season, and Kelvin Hayden, Aaron Francisco and Keyunta Dawson this week, makes them vulnerable against this class of passing attack on the road. Manning’s 8.17 per pass attempt, and 21 TD passes vs. nine INT’s is special, but note that Matt Schaub checks in at 8.10, 19 and nine in the same categories. Now that James Casey is healthy again they can mitigate the loss of Owen Daniels a bit, and they have a trio of rookie CB’s in Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers that they can line Andre Johnson up against. So just where are the advantages that a road favorite in this pointspread range is supposed to have?The Texans bring no intimidation at all in this matchup. They had the Colts beaten on this field LY until those late Sage Rosenfels turnovers (it was 27-10 with less than 5:00 remaining), and played them dead even on the road earlier. Because of that they bring the confidence level to attack, which is the way to get after this opponent right now, and that aggressiveness leads to an outright win that really is not much of an upset.

5* #216 TENNESSEE/ARIZONA Under

It should not come as any surprise that we land on this one – after cashing a 6* Under ticket with the Titans on Monday night, and then focusing on how misleading their defensive numbers are in this week’s N.F.L. edition of <i>”Verities & Balderdash”</i>, we can easily stay in play as the markets deal the wrong line range.Yes, you will see awful statistics for the Tennessee pass defense. That is what happens when you lose three key contributors from the secondary at the same time, and are forced to start a pair of rookie CB’s in back-to-back games against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who lit them up for 90 points, 735 yards through the air, and nine TD passes. But now Cortland Finnegan, Vincent Fuller and Nick Harper are all healthy again, while Rod Hood has had several weeks to learn the Titan schemes and is also now a prime part of the rotation. Instead of being near the bottom of the league this is a capable defense, and one playing with a lot of confidence and enthusiasm in the current 4-0 SU run.But the markets lag behind. When was the last time we saw a 46 dealt as a Total on this field? You have to go back 21 games, to December of 2006 against the Colts. Now it is not just a case of the Tennessee defense putting better players on the field, but that the game flows also slow down, as they get back to playing Jeff Fisher football again. And this is not a Total for a Fisher game.Arizona also contributes for our purposes this week. The Cardinal defense has been outstanding on the road this season, allowing only 14.2 points per game (that includes a couple of garbage-time TD’s when they were leading 34-7 in the fourth quarter at Chicago), and their depth and quickness up front make a big difference in slowing Chris Johnson down, and keeping Vince Young in the pocket. Meanwhile the offensive focus continues to be more on working underneath than stretching the field (neither Larry Fitzgerald nor Anquan Boldin are averaging more than 12.0 per catch), and in recent weeks we have see a lot more two TE looks, which not only helps the running game, but brings better protection on the edges for a fragile Kurt Warner. It all adds to bring a much different flow than what the oddsmakers have called for, and we take advantage.
 

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Ace Ace

$2500.00 Take #213 Miami (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
Buffalo is just 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. Miami has quietly won three of four games (covering in all three wins) to get themselves back in the playoff hunt. Buffalo’s defense still struggled against the run and Ricky Williams proved last Thursday that he’s still got plenty left in the tank. Miami will take advantage of the extra few days that it had to rest and to prepare and I think that they prolong Buffalo’s lost season.

$2000.00 Take #215 Arizona (+3) over Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
This play is part of the 99 System. There may not be a line for this game because of Kurt Warner’s status. I will update this number on Saturday evening. But this play is not that dependant on the line. Arizona is going to be an underdog and I think that they are going to win outright. Right now everyone is jumping on Tennessee’s bandwagon but I will go the other way. Even if Kurt Warner can’t go I have confidence in Matt Leinart. Check back Saturday evening for an updated line on this system play.

$300.00 Take #222 New York Jets (-3) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
Here is one of those underdogs that just looks too easy to take. The Jets have lost five of six games but are still a better team than they look on paper. Four of the five losses were by five points or less. The Jets are coming off a humbling loss to New England but now a home game against sagging Carolina is just what they need. The home team has covered four straight in this series and the Panthers are just 4-9 ATS as a road dog.

$500.00 Take #226 San Diego (-13.5) over Kansas City (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
Just like we are going to continue betting against Denver we are going to continue to bet on San Diego. They are firing on all cylinders right now and after manhandling Kansas City in Arrowhead they should score another blowout this week. We saw last weekend that the top teams in the NFL are still ahead of the spread and just much much better than weak teams like the Chiefs. Kansas City is off an upset win. But I don’t think that they have two in a row in them. San Diego is an outstanding 23-10-4 ATS in their last 37 divisional games. They have covered four of their last five games.

$2000.00 Take #229 New England (+3) over New Orleans (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
it is part of the 99 System. New England is playing great football right now and are peaking at the right time. New Orleans is coming off a big win over a bad team but they have clearly not looked as sharp over the last month as they did early on in the season. New England was blowing out Indianapolis two weeks ago on Monday Night Football until they let that game slip away. I don’t think that they will let this one slip away and I think that they will win it outright. New England is 37-17-2 ATS on the road and they will be ready to play in a very tough environment.

Ace-Ace
 
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Scott Ferrall

NFL FREE PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD FOR SUNDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )


Carolina

JETS -3 (1)


Jacksonville

SAN FRANCISCO -3 (2)


KANSAS CITY +14 (3)

San Diego



Washington / Philadelphia OVER 40

Seattle / St. Louis OVER 42

Jacksonville / San Francisco UNDER 41 ½
 

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DUNKEL NFL

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 140.940; Houston 139.874
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.898; Cincinnati 137.874
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 20; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14); Over

Game 209-210: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.269; Minnesota 140.289
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.274; Philadelphia 134.161
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: Miami at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.831; Buffalo 126.994
Dunkel Line: Miami by 9; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over

Game 215-216: Arizona at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.215; Tennessee 134.014
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over

Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; St. Louis 120.261
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over

Game 219-220: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.674; Atlanta 134.690
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 12; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+12); Under

Game 221-222: Carolina at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.009; NY Jets 132.029
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 223-224: Jacksonville at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.844; San Francisco 131.526
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick San Francisco (-3); Under

Game 225-226: Kansas City at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.875; San Diego 136.307
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 14; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+14); Over

Game 227-228: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 140.488; Baltimore 138.316
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
 

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DICEITUPONLINE-FIREMAN'S NFL

Jets-2.5 (Buy hook if -3) = 10 Dimes

Bears +11 = 10 Dimes

3 Team Teaser = 10 Dimes
Falcons -2 (Tease down 10)
Chargers - 3.5 (Tease down 10)
Colts / Texans over 37 (Tease down 10)
 

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POINTWISE PHONES

3* Carolina, Minny, New England

2* St Louis, Washington, Clev
 

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WUNDERDOG NFL pick

Game: Arizona at Tennessee (Sunday 11/29 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona +3 (-120)
The Titans were left for dead after an 0-6 start, but they have turned it around with four straight wins with Vince Young back under center. Young said this week he was surprised by the 4-0 record. I think he's on to something. Tennessee has certainly improved. But, to go from 0-6 to 4-0 requires some luck. That luck has come in the form of eight opponent turnovers in the first three wins (vs. just one for Tennessee). You could argue that Young is doing a good job at not turning the ball over. But, the reality is, turnoves are mostly random. When things even out (as they always do), the Titans will find the wins harder to come by. This week they will be facing an equally hot team in the Arizona Cardinals that has won six out of seven. The Cards struggled some early on offense, but it was just a matter of time before they got it going. Over the last seven games they have produced 21 or more points. The Titans will be playing this one on a short week and facing the most complete team they have since starting 0-6. The Cards have really been a tough out playing in the role of an underdog where they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven posted as a dog, including 5-0 ATS as a road dog. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Playing on Sunday following a Monday game, the Titans are 0-6 ATS on the short week. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. I like Arizona here who I believe is the better team on both sides of the ball and getting points.
 

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Hilton Contest Summary 11/29

Mia -3 - 103
Ne +2.5 - 82
Jax +3.5 - 80
Den +6.5 - 75
Ten -3 - 75
Ind -3 - 70
Hou +3 - 70
Car +3 - 64
Sea -3 - 62
Pit +3 - 60
Ari +3 - 57
Bal -3 - 51
No -2.5 - 51
Chi +10.5 - 50
Dal -13.5 - 46
Was +9 - 46
Sf -3.5 - 45
Min -10.5 - 44
Kc +13.5 - 40
Atl -12 - 38
Cle +14 - 36
Stl +3 - 36
Nyj -3 - 34
Gb -10.5 - 33
Buf +3 - 33
Phi -9 - 29
Oak +13.5 - 28
Nyg -6.5 - 26
Tb +12 - 24
Sd -13.5 - 24
Det +10.5 - 22
Cin -14 - 16
 

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DCI
Sunday, November 29, 2009
ATLANTA 32, Tampa Bay 18
Miami 27, BUFFALO 15
CINCINNATI 26, Cleveland 3
Indianapolis 23, HOUSTON 20
MINNESOTA 30, Chicago 17
Carolina 24, N.Y. JETS 21
PHILADELPHIA 23, Washington 12
Seattle 22, ST. LOUIS 19
TENNESSEE 25, Arizona 24
SAN DIEGO 29, Kansas City 16
SAN FRANCISCO 23, Jacksonville 18
BALTIMORE 19, Pittsburgh 15
 

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Steve Budin

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
COSTA RICA CONNECTION

25 DIME RELEASE

Tennessee


This line can be found between 2 1/2 or 3 depending on where you shop as I release this selection at 6:00 P.M. Eastern on Saturday evening. If you have either price - or even if you get stuck with 3 1/2 - I want you to buy down the 1/2 point for insurance no matter the case.

Paid & Confirmed.
GL!
 

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Hilton contest

top contestant(s) selections
two tied with a record of 37-18

(37-18): Indy / miami / tenn / rams / jax
(37-18): Indy / clev / chic / philly / seatt


bottom contestant(s) selections
two tied with a record of 20-35

(20-35): Indy / miami / rams / san fran / kc
(20-35): Det (l) / nyg (l) / chic / seatt / jax
 

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From the Brandon Lang thread...

Brandon Lang

Sunday's Selection... NOTE:

Forget 20 dime winner #5 in a row Thursday with the Denver Broncos.

Forget the 2-0 sweep Friday highlighted by the 15 dime winner Wyoming outright.

Forget about 20 dime winner #6 in a row with Southern Miss on Saturday.

Today is about one thing and one thing only.

14-1-2 paid and comp play run in the NFL..

Just take a moment to digest that number. 14-1-2.

My only loss in this run the last 4 weeks was the Monday night affair between the Ravens and the Browns as I teased the Ravens down to single digits and took the total down and went over.

Ravens got there easily while the total didn't.

I am a hiccup away from being a perfect 15-0 in the NFL over the past four weeks heading into today and looking for a 4th straight perfect Sunday.

The fact of the matter is I am just that hot right now. I am in the zone. I have put myself in the moment in the NFL like never before.

The numbers above don't lie. You want favorites that have won by 20, you've gotten them. You want dogs that have won outright, you've gotten them.

And now, with a 7-0-2 Sunday run at stake, a 14-1-2 overall NFL run at stake, I plan on doing exactly what I have done the last 3 Sundays and that is deliver perfection again.

Are you ready for 9-0-2? Are you ready for 16-1-2?

I hope so because here it comes.


30 DIME - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

(Note: If the line is 3, you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2; if the line is 3 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and get 4)

Great spot for the Jags to continue their winning ways today.

First and foremost, I really don't think the Niners are playing well enough right now to be a favorite over anybody.

Secondly, with the AFC being a far superior conference, I have been jumping on the AFC getting points from the NFC, just like the 20 dime winner on the Broncos over the Giants on Thursday.

Bottom line is the Jaguars are surging right now - winners of 3 in a row - and have worked their way back into the AFC playoff picture. This team is improving by the week and I like what I am seeing from Jack Del Rio's squad.

The Niners are off a very misleading final last week as they trailed 23-3 before rallying in the 4th to get the pointspread push at Green Bay.

Alex Smith is not the answer at QB for the Niners and they just are not a good enough football team to beat the Jags today.

People are jumping on the Niners in this spot based on the fact this Jags' team went to Seattle earlier this year and got destroyed by a count of 41-0, but like I said above, this is a completely different Jags' team.

The Jags have the better QB, the better run defense and - with no disrespect to Frank Gore - the best running back on the field today in Maurice Jones-Drew.

I truly believe this game today comes down to which QB makes the most plays and for my dollar that QB is David Garrad.

30 dime winner Jacksonville.
 
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Sunday 11-1 NFL System Club Play-GC

On Sunday the system club play is on the St. Louis Rams. Game 217 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams come in off a pair of hard fought home losses vs the Saints and Cards. Both teams that are over .500. Today they get a Seattle team that is under .500 and they may be able to pull the upset. They have 28-0 loss revenge from an opening week shellacking in Seattle. Home Dogs if they were a home dog of 7 or more last week and scored 14 or less points if the opponent comes in off a game where they had 100 or less rush yards. These home dogs are 15-4 ats since 1980 and 11-1 the last 12. Seattle is just 2-12 ats as favorites of less than 10 points off a double digit ats loss. Take the Rams plus the four points here today. In late phone action I have a Huge 5 unit AFC Totals play from a 100% System that averages 54 ppg. Also on the NFl card is the Triple angle dog of the week which should win the game outright and a BIG 13-1 NBA Blowout system play. The NFL is 10-3 the past 3 weeks and is having another banner year.We nailed Both Big 5 unit plays on Saturday as the rampage continues. For the System Club play take the St. Louis Rams. BOL GC
 

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RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK


Pick # 1 Buffalo Bills (3.5)











RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL O/U BEST BET WINNER! (POWER STATS)

Pick # 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Atlanta Falcons Under 46 -110
 

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